Apple, Microsoft, Amazon could hit $5T market cap by 2038

Despite a global pandemic, the sky seems to be the limit for corporate profits—as it was for Apple, which soared to a $3 trillion market value in early January, a landmark summit no company had reached ever before. Apple’s moment in the sun lasted only for minutes—its stock price since dropped and its valuation stands at $2.84 trillion—but surely it will be back there again, and its success is simply a sign of more to come.

At least, that’s according to XTB, a leading European foreign exchange brokerage, whose new research predicts which of today’s mammoth companies could be the first to reach the $5 trillion mark. Based on historical market capitalizations dating back to 2010 (and some Excel wizardry), XTB forecast that five companies could achieve the goal within the next half-century.

Unsurprisingly, all of them are tech businesses—led, of course, by Apple itself, which could cross the threshold within the next decade.

The ranking follows:

  • Apple, by 2028
  • Microsoft, by 2035
  • Amazon, by 2035
  • Tesla, by 2066
  • Nvidia, by 2066

Another three companies are expected to hit $5 trillion before the turn of the century: TSMC, by 2078; Tencent, by 2083; and UnitedHealth, by 2090. Meanwhile, a handful of big names will just miss the mark: Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, Samsung, Home Depot, and LVMH are all projected to be worth just under $4 trillion by 2100.

However, a notable disclaimer to the list is that it excludes some of the world’s largest companies, for which full historical market data was unavailable—including industry titans like Saudi Aramco, Alphabet, Meta, PayPal, Alibaba, and Meituan. Saudi Aramco and Alphabet have both cleared the $2 trillion milestone, at least briefly, with Alphabet doing so for the first time in late 2021. Meanwhile, Meta was on the cusp of $1 trillion before an unfortunate fourth-quarter earnings report triggered a disastrous stock market wipeout, which scrubbed $250 billion from its value in a single day.

But Apple, on the other hand, has momentum on its side. It took nearly four decades of trading to hit $1 trillion in 2018, but then saw one of the greatest gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2021, rising 41% throughout the year. Tesla has also seen astronomical growth, with its market cap skyrocketing from $75 billion in 2019 to $1.1 trillion in late 2021.

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